Opinion| Weathering the Storm: Reflections and Preparations for the 2024 Hurricane Season

As the 2024 hurricane season begins with concerns over projected activity, Tropical Storm Alberto swiftly impacted South Texas and Central Mexico. The storm's early arrival underscores the unpredictability of these weather events. Reflecting on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which was initially expected to be average, it unexpectedly became the fourth-most active on record, featuring 20 named storms and significant impacts, although many were "fish storms" that posed no land threat.

Looking ahead, NOAA forecasts a near-normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, predicting 12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. This underscores the importance of heightened preparedness, particularly for vulnerable regions like Texas, which could face powerful winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding. Even in near-normal seasons, historical data shows potential devastating consequences if hurricanes make landfall in populated areas.

Gov. Greg Abbott declared a preemptive state of disaster as Tropical Storm Alberto threatened Texas with heavy rainfall, primarily in the Rio Grande Valley, delivering half of the expected rainfall and mitigating immediate flood risks.

The early arrival of Tropical Storm Alberto highlighted the unpredictability and escalating intensity of storms, reinforcing the need for year-round preparedness and vigilance in Texas. This underscores the necessity for robust emergency plans and community resilience to tackle evolving climate challenges and heightened weather events.

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Similarly, Hurricane Beryl is expected to move west-northwest, posing significant risks to the central and northwestern Caribbean later in the week. Early predictions indicate no threats to the Atlantic coast of the United States. However, residents along the Texas Gulf Coast should remain vigilant and monitor the situation closely, as changes in the storm's path could impact the area. Preparedness measures and staying informed through reliable weather updates are recommended.

Texas provides a range of hurricane support resources, including emergency preparedness guides, evacuation plans, shelter information, and community outreach. These efforts aim to safeguard lives and enhance resilience statewide in the face of hurricane threats.

Prairie View A&M University supports underserved communities through its land grant extension programs, which include education and disaster preparedness plans and training. Through partnerships and effective communication, PVAMU enhances readiness, empowering communities to navigate storms safely and bolster resilience.

PVAMU hydrologists have been focused on studying extreme events, including hurricanes, and their impact on water resources and stakeholders. One recent contribution is their involvement in the Navasota River Flooding Project, led by Texas A&M University's Institute for a Disaster Resilient Texas. PVAMU analyzed rainfall trends in the watershed, highlighting the rise in high-intensity rainfall events that can overwhelm soil drainage capacity. They noted increasing rainfall trends, with 2015 being a record wet year, leading to heightened streamflow and increased risk of river overbanking and adjacent land flooding.

PVAMU hydrologists are actively working and participating in advancing knowledge in this area, including editing studies on the effects of climate change on extreme events and improving early warning systems for preparedness.

Dr. Ali Fares is theEndowed Professor of Water Security & Water-Energy-Food Nexus at Prairie View A&M University.

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