CPIA 2024: Top Highlights in 5 Charts

CPIA Africa Assessing Africa's Policies and Institutions - Structural Reforms for a Vibrant Private Sector

The Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) for Africa is an annual diagnostic tool for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries eligible for financing from the International Development Association (IDA), the part of the World Bank that helps the world's low-income countriesby providing grants and low to zero-interest loans for projects and programs that boost economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve people's lives.* The CPIA Report aims to capture the quality of each country's policies and institutional arrangements, focusing on the elements within the country's control. The scores are designed to assess sustainable growth and poverty reduction supported through existing frameworks.

The CPIA provides scores for each country, and an overall regional score, on a scale of 1 (lowest) to 6 (highest) in four clusters: economic management, structural policies, social inclusion and equity policies, and public sector management and institutions. The scores inform governments of the impact of each country's efforts to support inclusive growth and poverty reduction. The overall score helps determine the size of the World Bank's concessional lending and grants to low-income SSA countries. The report includes scores for IDA-eligible countries and acts as a touchstone for country monitoring and regional best practices.

Robust reforms and improvements in technical capacity are reflected in changes in the 2024 CPIA for Africa. Multiple measures of central bank independence have increased, and fiscal deficits are decreasing as governments are prioritizing economic stability and credibility. The region has advanced in creating an inclusive marketplace with a strong social foundation, as climate change has mobilized governments to develop national adaptation plans and quickly put into place policies aimed at attracting investments in green growth.

However, the prospects for continued growth fueled by public sector investments are narrowing and the region is looking to mobilize resources and investment from the nascent private sector, which will be central to creating employment opportunities and fostering well-being across the region. The 2024 CPIA report focuses on reforms across the policy areas that support private sector growth and identifies trends that made a difference in supporting private sector development in 2023.

Regional trends around digitization and integration provide reasons for optimism. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA) should start to see some demonstrable results in 2024, with the potential for fundamental change in trade and the financial sector, leading to an increase in private investment. Moreover, trade integration through one-stop border crossings has grown considerably, taking advantage of digital technologies for rapid processing and coordination of trade administration. Digital transformation also has the potential to unlock capital for the private sector through digital financial services, while electronic platforms for business registration and tax payment facilitate formal sector growth and corruption prevention.

Nevertheless, deep structural challenges remain in many places. The success of AfCFTA will rest on political support. Monopolies and captured markets continue to undermine the potential for new business growth. Digital technology has the potential to strengthen public sector performance and increase the accountability of the executive in ways that fosters the private sector, but political capture remains a concern.

No. 1 - Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has closed the gap with other regions in recent years.

Among IDA countries, SSA has made progress over the years. The gap between the regional and overall averages has shrunk, reflecting successful reforms undertaken by countries in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa has made progress in 3 of the 4 major categories since 2015 and has even surpassed the global IDA average in clusters A (economic management) and C (policies for social inclusion and equity). In 2023, inflation declined, and fiscal balances improved in several African countries that pursued prudent and coordinated macroeconomic policies.

Yet, the narrowing gap between SSA and the rest of the IDA countries has been undermined by the region's much slower improvement in the governance cluster (cluster D, public sector management and institutions). The scores for the individual criteria show that the largest differences between SSA and the overall IDA averages fall into two general categories: the rule of law (property rights and rule-based governance and transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector) and financial oversight (financial sector, quality of budgetary and financial management, and debt policy and management).

SSA has closed the gap with other regions in recent years

Source: World Bank CPIA database, 2024. Note: IDA = International Development Association; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.

No. 2 - SSA does well across multiple measures of central bank independence.

Following years of global economic volatility, macroeconomic policy in the region has benefited from reforms aimed at increasing resilience to international shocks. Indeed, the region leads among a range of measures of central bank independence and in the number of reforms passed in recent years. Many central banks have also improved institutional transparency and entrenched the separation of fiscal deficits from monetary activities. Nonetheless, pressure on exchange rates has made it difficult for countries that actively manage exchange rate fluctuations.

No. 3 - Debt service obligations spiked in 2023

Debt has replaced international shocks as the key threat to economic stability in the region. The buildup of deficits in recent years has led to debt concerns, with some countries resorting to the increased arrears and monetary financing of the deficit in extreme cases. Twenty-one countries were at high risk of external debt distress or in debt distress as of June 2023. Despite the calming inflationary pressures, high interest rates limit government capacity for investment, as high debt service costs and rollover rates for existing debt make further deficits especially difficult to finance. Elevated debt service costs also increase vulnerability to shocks and place extra pressure on liquidity considerations, especially for countries that have gained access to the international bond market and other non-concessional financing sources. However, following bouts of inflation driven by rising import prices for fuel and food, countries have made progress in winding down costly price controls and subsidies. Nevertheless, the scope for continued public sector-led growth is limited.

No. 4 - Public sector investment cannot continue to drive growth

As fiscal constraints prevent upward trending public investment, private capital flows need to accelerate. Increases in public investment in recent decades have not been accompanied by similar increases in the private sector. On average, most countries' foreign investment has been decreasing over the past decade, while public sector fixed capital formation has more than doubled as a proportion of GDP since 2000. Private sector growth is especially constrained in countries experiencing active debt distress, which is often accompanied by severe financial sector and exchange rate volatility.

No. 5 - Two major trends offer hope for private sector growth

Digital technology and increased intraregional trade offer more reason for optimism. On the digital side, expansion of information technology has the potential to be transformational in the region by allowing for significant structural changes across economic activity. Access to high-speed internet in Africa increases the probability of employment by between 6.9 and 13.2%, as well as increasing the growth of output per worker and reducing poverty. Similarly, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could transform the trade landscape toward a more diversified and higher value export composition. The share of intraregional trade in the region is significantly lower than in other regions and hasn't increased significantly over the past two decades. As a result, the prospect for increased intraregional trade poses significant opportunities for increased competition, FDI inflows, economies of scale, transfer of knowledge and technology, productivity, and economic diversification.

Source: United Nations COMTRADE database

Changes in country scores since the previous CPIA

In 2023, the average CPIA score for IDA countries in Sub-Saharan Africa remained broadly similar to the 2022 level, at 3.1. However, more countries saw improvements in their overall scores compared to those that received downgrades, and fewer countries' scores declined compared to the previous year's CPIA assessment.

* The World Bank's International Development Association (IDA), established in 1960, helps the world's low-income countries by providing grants and low to zero-interest loans for projects and programs that boost economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve people's lives. IDA is one of the largest sources of assistance for its 75 client countries, 39 of which are in Africa. Since 1960, IDA has provided $552 billion to 115 countries. Annual commitments have averaged about $36 billion over the last three years (FY21-FY23), with about 75% going to Africa. Learn more online: https://ida.worldbank.org #IDAworks

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