Padilla, Murkowski Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Establish Atmospheric River Forecasting Program

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Today, U.S. Senators Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Fisheries, Water, and Wildlife, and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) introduced bipartisan legislation that will reduce flood risks and bolster emergency preparedness by improving atmospheric river forecasting to more precisely predict the timing and location of these storms. The Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act would require the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to establish a forecast improvement program within the National Weather Service.

The legislation was introduced as the first significant atmospheric rivers of the season make landfall in the Pacific Northwest and along the Gulf Coast.

Atmospheric rivers, often described as "rivers in the sky" that are hundreds of miles wide and can carry water vapor equivalent to multiple Mississippi Rivers, cause more than 80 percent of flood damage across the West. Climate change will only make these storms increasingly catastrophic: by 2090, atmospheric rivers are expected to cost $2.3 to $3.2 billion in annual damages and increase in width by nearly 25 percent. Over 50 atmospheric rivers made landfall across the West Coast during the 2024 water year, from October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024.

"For the past several years, California communities have witnessed firsthand the ongoing threat of destructive flooding caused by intense and frequent atmospheric river storms," said Senator Padilla. "California scientists have led the way in improving our understanding of these storms, and this bipartisan bill will strengthen forecasts to both reduce flood risks and bolster our water supply and drought resilience."

"It was one year ago today that the community of Wrangell was devastated by the loss of six people, including three children, due to landslide. Ketchikan also experienced a deadly landslide just months ago. Haines and Sitka have also lost friends, family, and property due to massive landslides. With greater frequency, we are seeing that atmospheric rivers instill dangerous climate conditions that pose deadly threats to Alaskan communities," said Senator Murkowski. "While there are numerous atmospheric river observatories in the Lower 48, none are in Alaska. This bill ensures that all states along the West coast, including Alaska, have at least one atmospheric river observatory. Along with improved modeling, data collection, and risk communication, this legislation will help protect our communities and ultimately save lives across Alaska."

"Atmospheric rivers are responsible for 30-50% of annual precipitation along the western U.S. and cause the majority of the flooding, with more than $1 billion in annual average flood damage in the western 11 states," said Marty Ralph, Founding Director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography. "The introduction of this act is critically important to advance forecasts of atmospheric rivers to enable more flexible and resilient water management, improved warning around flooding, safer transportation, and overall improvements to public safety. It will also enable reservoir operators to safely implement Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) to save additional water after a storm for the dry summer, or release it if an AR storm is predicted in the next few days."

Specifically, the Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act would direct NOAA to establish a standalone atmospheric river forecast improvement program that would:

• Develop accurate, effective, and actionable storm forecasts and warnings in collaboration with public and private partners across the weather enterprise;
• Evaluate innovative observation tools and emerging technologies to improve atmospheric river analysis, modeling, forecasts, and warnings;
• Authorize NOAA to procure equipment, aircraft, and personnel contracts to fully monitor atmospheric river events each winter; and
• Improve atmospheric river hazard communication.

Senator Padilla has fought tirelessly for California communities devastated by atmospheric river flooding. This spring, he urged the Biden Administration to prioritize sustained federal investment in the Pajaro River Flood Risk Management Project to protect disadvantaged communities along the central coast of California. Padilla also introduced the Atmospheric Rivers Reconnaissance, Observation and Warning (ARROW) Act to bolster West Coast atmospheric river forecasting, which was passed into law through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2024. Last year, he met with families, small business owners, and farmers in Watsonville and Pajaro impacted by extreme storms after he and Representative Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.-18) successfully led the California Congressional delegation in urging the Biden Administration to approve a Major Disaster Declaration. Padilla also pressed Director of the Office of Management and Budget Shalanda Young to ensure adequate resources go to historically overlooked and low-income communities, which disproportionately bear the impacts of natural disasters.

Padilla has also championed funding for programs such as the Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) to improve U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir operations to increase water conservation and reliability at Lake Sonoma and Prado Dam, for example, while maintaining flood control and enhanced public safety during extreme precipitation events.

Full text of the bill is available here.

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