Kamala Harris’ edge over Donald Trump slips slightly as she leads 43% to 37% in Virginia

By Robyn McDougle and L. Douglas Wilder

Today, the VCU Wilder School released the results of its most recent Commonwealth Poll, conducted from Sept. 16 to Sept. 25.

With Virginians already voting in the presidential election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leads Republican nominee Donald Trump 43% to 37%. This is a slight dip in support compared with last month's VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll, which had Harris leading Trump 46% to 36%.

By party affiliation, almost 9 of 10 Democrats (86%) said they would vote for Harris, while 79% of Republicans support Trump. Among Independents, Trump leads Harris 29% to 16%, with 16% saying they would not vote and 19% undecided. By age demographics, 18- to 24-year-olds are breaking for Harris (42% to 37%), as they were in VCU Wilder School's previous poll in early September. Interestingly, the trend among older voters, ages 55 to 65, continuing to support Harris is seen in the new poll as well (56% to 36%).

Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia, said, "The slipin the Harris lead, though not alarming, should be a wake-up call, as the sampling error of plus or minus 4.64 sends a message. Independents could make a real difference. The race in Virginia could be decided by who gets their voters to turn out, and voting has already started."

Most important voting issues

Virginians were asked to identify the most important issue influencing their vote. The top three concerns are the rising cost of living (33%), women's reproductive rights (20%) and immigration (12%). These priorities are consistent with VCU Wilder School polls over the summer and in early September. Among Democrats, the most important issue is women's reproductive rights (39%). For Republicans and Independents, the top concern is the rising cost of living, with 45% of Republicans and 30% of Independents identifying it as their primary issue.

Trust with handling the economy

Voters trust Trump more than Harris on the economy (42% to 38%), compared with last month's poll that found a virtual tie, with 38% of voters trusting Harris and 37% trusting Trump.

Among Democrats, 73% trust Harris on the economy, while 87% of Republicans and 47% of Independents trust Trump more.

Trust with handling immigration issues

Virginians were also asked whom they trust the most on immigration issues. As with the economy, Trump leads Harris 42% to 38%. Among Republicans and Independents, Trump was trusted more on immigration issues (86% and 32%, respectively), while 74% of Democrats trust Harris more.

Trust with handling reproductive rights

On reproductive rights overall, Virginians trust Harris (49%) more than Trump (23%). Democrats overwhelmingly trust Harris' handling of women's reproductive rights (91%). Among Independents, 33% trust neither candidate, though Harris is trusted more than Trump (24% to 19%). Among Republicans, 51% trust Trump to handle women's reproductive rights, while a quarter (25%) trust neither nominee.

Access the full results of the latest VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll.

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