A $3.8 trillion opportunity: Unlocking the economic potential of US generative AI

Generative AI represents a leap in the evolution of artificial intelligence, pushing the boundaries of what machines can achieve to unlock greater human potential and prosperity. We are at a pivotal moment where AI becomes not just a tool for automation but a catalyst for creativity and innovation, poised to reshape industries and economies. At both the individual and mass levels, the access, sophistication, and capability of gen AI technologies at scale promise to be transformational. This presents new opportunities for individuals, companies, and nations. Yet, we are only beginning to unlock gen AI's immense potential, and now we face the broad opportunity and challenge of integrating gen AI across the United States-from government to industry to science-to drive breakthroughs and economic growth that benefits everyone.

To better understand this transformational potential, Microsoft and Accenture partnered to conduct an analysis of the AI opportunity in the US. Today, we are releasing a new paper that provides an overview of the current state of gen AI, its economic potential in the US, and the contours of its ecosystem, including the role that partnerships play in driving growth, innovation, and, ultimately, the broader adoption and diffusion of gen AI technology. The AI landscape is evolving so rapidly that we do not expect this paper to provide all the answers, but rather we see it as a catalyst and contribution to the dialogue as we move forward.

The economic benefits gen AI could bring to the US in the coming decades are substantial. The rapidly-expanding gen AI ecosystem in the US-with over 1,500 small and large companies to date and billions in new investment each year-underscores the technology's economic and strategic significance. Gen AI is more than a breakthrough-it is a key engine of US competitiveness and technological leadership globally. Maintaining this edge is not enough.

As Brad Smith noted a few weeks ago, it is almost certain that AI will be regarded by economists as the world's next great general-purpose technology (GPT) that will have multiple applications and can be utilized across every economic sector. GPTs have the power to reshape economies and societies, and historically critical GPTs significantly boost productivity. The more widely a GPT is diffused and adopted, the greater its contribution to the productivity gains that drive economic growth.

Through public and private partnerships and a focused strategy, our research has found that we can expect an uplift to labor productivity that contributes approximately $3.8 trillion to the US economy by 2038. The impact, however, extends far beyond these gains-gen AI is set to drive substantial investment, fuel innovation, enable scientific breakthroughs, and support broader improvements in the health and well-being of Americans.

To fully realize the economic potential of gen AI, we must take a coordinated approach across industries, government, academia, civil society, and the workforce. This collaboration is essential to ensure the US is at the forefront of this technological revolution, drives widespread diffusion and adoption across industries, and reaps its competitiveness benefits, shaping gen AI's impact globally.

We hope this paper provides valuable insights and inspires action to drive broader gen AI adoption, and we look forward to continuing the dialogue as this transformational field evolves.

Tags: AI, economy, generative ai, Innovation, Technology