Study raises concerns about the climate change and global conflict crises

"Talking to the people who had lost their lands and preparing for these cases made me realise how conflict and climate change were so closely connected," said Ms Luisa Bedoya Taborda, who spent countless hours hunting down land deeds and interviewing conflict-affected communities to fight for their land rights.

She went on to lead a study examining the relationship between climate change and conflict, including civil war, which has identified that South America, Oceania, and Southeast Asia are understudied regions. The study, published in WIRES Climate Change, examined over 212 papers on the topic spanning 15 years (2007-2023). It revealed that while researchers have focused on linking climate impacts to the onset of conflict, there has been less attention on how climate impacts affect communities already experiencing conflict or involved in peacebuilding.

This is despite the fact that in many communities in Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, and the Philippines, climate-induced impacts such as typhoons, floods, droughts, and coastal erosion are already intensifying socio-political tensions and often triggering or escalating conflicts.

The researchers say the findings underscore the need for peacebuilding and efforts to limit climate change in risk-prone regions to be designed to work together, and not in isolation.

Crucial perspectives were also missing in most of the reviewed studies on climate change and conflict.

"Many of those studies are in English and studies published in Spanish, Portuguese, Tagalog, and other languages are underrepresented in current databases, so we are missing important perspectives and understanding of these situations," said Ms Bedoya Taborda.

Researchers warn that this gap could directly impact Australia's humanitarian response by challenging the effectiveness of its economic aid, peacebuilding, and climate adaptation efforts.

"Climate-driven instability in neighbouring countries could lead to regional security concerns, migration pressures, and humanitarian crises in Australia, and these areas are under-researched," said Associate Professor Michele Barnes, co-author of this study at the University of Sydney with James Cook University's Professor Tiffany Morrison.

Workshop with community members to draw the map of their land. Credit: Luisa F Bedoya Taborda 2022

"I was helping communities in Colombia that were dealing with climate change impacts like droughts or flooding and simultaneously they were affected by conflict. The same lands that were abandoned or seized, and I was helping to recover, were also intensely impacted by climate change," Ms Bedoya Taborda said. In 2022 she moved to Australia to complete a master's degree at James Cook University, two years later she is commencing a PhD on this topic at the University of Sydney's School of Project Management, Faculty of Engineering.

"It's very complicated because we don't actually know how to help communities facing these simultaneous shocks."

"Our review showed there is a major gap regarding what's happening in communities that are already affected by conflict. So, these communities are basically alone, trying to face these two significant, compounded shocks," said Ms Bedoya Taborda, who led the study as a master's student.

The researchers revealed that climate-induced stress is already exacerbating existing socio-political tensions, often leading to the outbreak or escalation of conflicts.

One example the researchers gave was Nepal, in Southern Asia. The country began a peacebuilding process after a 10-year civil war. The peacebuilding process attempted to lessen poverty and improve communities' livelihoods, but Nepal's communities faced significant difficulties due to the persistence of the underlying causes of the civil war combined with climate change impacts. The Midland region was severely deforested, and there was a shortage of wood and food.

This type of climate-security-driven crisis in Australia's neighbouring regions could lead to an increased demand for humanitarian aid, migration support and diplomatic and security assistance.

"There's an urgent need to study climate change impacts in conflict-affected communities so we can better understand how to design policies and projects that can help address these compounding issues in ways that work toward both climate resilience and enduring peace," said Dr Barnes.

Declaration: LBT gratefully acknowledges funding support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and the College of Arts, Society, and Education at, James Cook University. MB was supported by the Australian Research Council through a Discovery Early Career Fellowship Grant and the Centre of Excellence Program and TM was supported by the Australian Research Council through the Australian Research Council Discovery Program and Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence Program.

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