Energy analyst: Clean energy dreams come only with advanced nuclear

"We're going to have to do things differently if we hope to trim the output of climate-changing emissions," writes Matthew L. Wald in an essay recently published by the Breakthrough Institute. Wald is an independent energy analyst, writer, and Nuclear Newscontributor who formerly worked for the Nuclear Energy Institute and the New York Times. In the essay, he says that despite optimism surrounding progress in clean energy, consumption of fossil fuels is growing, and greenhouse gas emissions are increasing.

Wald suggests that this situation is unlikely to turn around until small modular reactors and other advanced nuclear technologies are demonstrated to be commercially viable.

Race to zero emissions? Wald notes that "global consumption of fossil fuels grew 1.5 percent last year." Furthermore, "the fossil mix is getting worse; oil was up even faster than total fossil consumption, and demand passed 100 million barrels a day for the first time.

Coal also hit a new record, and carbon emissions from energy consumption are up by 50 percent since the turn of the century." He points to International Energy Agency statistics indicating that global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.1 percent in 2023.

Regarding the "race to transition to zero emissions," Wald writes that "it appears that the starting gun has fired, and the runners are milling around in confusion." He quotes Nick Wayth, chief executive of the Energy Institute, as saying, "'I would argue that the transition hasn't even crossed the start line.'"

Attraction of coal: The growing demand for energy and manufactured goods is driving the increase in emissions, according to Wald-especially in China and India, where the quest to build strong consumer economies is resulting in the rapid expansion of both the coal and nuclear industries. He writes that "both [countries] are short of electricity and are adding whatever they can."

He attributes the attraction of coal to the reality that "in some ways, [it] is wonderful stuff"-cheap to stockpile, widely available, free of technical challenges, and "generally not subject to embargoes or attacks on shipping." Thus, "around the world, and especially in the Asia/Pacific region, we are likely to continue seeing new coal plants."

Something better: Wald concludes by arguing that the energy dilemma is "mostly a supply-side problem," and that energy will be produced with fewer carbon emissions only "when something better comes along." That something better may be the "advanced reactor models now moving toward commercialization," such as SMRs. So, when does he theorize the goals of clean energy and net zero emissions will be realized? He writes:

When electric utilities or national energy authorities can order zero-carbon nuclear plants with the same schedule and price reliability as gas turbines or coal boilers, and when factories can turn them out like the Liberty Ships of World War II, produced by the thousands in an urgent, coordinated national effort, in multiple locations, from a single design or handful of designs.