• MEDMed this WeekMiddle East and North Africa

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the reactions in the MENA region to the rise of the far-right in France.

On Sunday, July 7, the second round of legislative elections will take place in France. On that night, the country will learn whether the far-right party, the Rassemblement National (RN), will secure a majority in Parliament for the first time in history. From the MENA region's viewpoint, there are significant concerns about the potential victory of the RN. The party's stringent anti-immigration stance, which includes plans for restrictive measures against dual nationals and limited access to French nationality, raises alarm in Maghreb countries, which share deep colonial, social, and political ties with France. Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco are particularly worried that their already strained relations with Paris could further deteriorate. In the Eastern Mediterranean, reactions to the rise of the far-right are mixed. The French political landscape has become polarized since the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel conflict, with the left supporting the Palestinian cause and the right backing Israeli actions. This division has led to a significant increase in antisemitic incidents both socially and politically. While the far-left, particularly Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party La France Insoumise, has faced accusations of antisemitism, the RN has attempted to distance itself from its antisemitic roots by supporting Israel. However, antisemitism remains deeply ingrained in the RN's establishment, and its pro-Israel stance is widely seen as a strategic move for electoral gain rather than a genuine shift in policy. Additionally, some RN members have strong ties to Christian Lebanese factions and the Syrian regime, giving Damascus hope of restoring relations with Paris. Should the RN continue to rise after the parliamentary elections and potentially gain power at the presidential level, the resulting radical shifts in French foreign policy could have profound consequences for the entire region, from Morocco to Syria.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss how the MENA countries perceived the rise of the far-right in France.

Maghreb fears the rise of the RN in a framework of already precarious relations with France

"The difficulties in organising the few institutional visits between Paris, Rabat, Algiers and Tunis are all symptoms of the critical French-Maghreb relations of these last years, from the 'Visa crisis' through Maghrebi nationalist and sovereigntist regurgitations to the perennial question of the Western Sahara. The rise of the extreme right in France could make this picture even worse. In particular, concern is high among Maghrebians: the many binational families and those who are divided between the two shores fear specific closures on issues of migration, residence and movement in France (for example, the RN would immediately call into question the 1968 Franco-Algerian agreement guaranteeing a special status to Algerians in France). For interregional relations, however, things might be different. If, for Algeria, the (Front National)-RN is the absolute evil (given the role of the founder during the Algerian war), Morocco could hope for a change of pace concerning the Algerian rapprochement policy that Macron has sought (unsuccessfully) to the detriment, according to Rabat, of a clear and total support for the Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara."

Caterina Roggero, Senior Associate Research Fellow, ISPI

The French-Algerian memorial issue would be even more critical if RN wins

"The rise of the right-wing in France is viewed with significant concern in Algeria, provoking complex reactions at both governmental and societal levels. Algerians fear a deterioration in Franco-Algerian relations, particularly regarding historical memory and migration issues. There is palpable anxiety about the fate of the Algerian community in France amid promises of stricter immigration policies. The Algerian youth, inheriting a transmitted colonial memory, dreads a resurgence of colonial ideologies, reinforcing disillusionment with the French republican model. Paradoxically, this situation galvanises memory-related claims and strengthens nationalist sentiment. Some see it as an opportunity to valorise the diaspora and reinforce national unity. Algerian authorities maintain a vigilant stance, reaffirming that the memory issue is 'non-negotiable', while preparing to adjust their diplomatic approach based on political developments in France."

Amel Boubekeur, Non-Resident Scholar, MEI

How the Gaza war polarised the French political landscape

"Since last October, the Gaza war has shaken the French political establishment, which had tried for many years to avoid the 'import' of the conflict into domestic politics. On the one hand, the far-left vigorously embraced the Palestinian cause, at the risk of being ambiguous on the nature of Hamas and enabling a new form of antisemitism. Against that backdrop, the Rassemblement National supported Israel's response in Gaza, but this was more driven by electoral tactics than an ideological or diplomatic shift. The Gaza war is not mentioned at all in the RN program, which focuses heavily on domestic security and migration issues. Meanwhile, antisemitism is still deeply ingrained in the political culture of the RN. But beyond the RN, this reflects a broader rapprochement between far-right parties in Western countries and the Netanyahu government."

Jean-Loup Saaman, Associate Expert, Institut Montaigne

RN could change French foreign policy with Damascus and Beirut

"Although foreign policy remains under the control of the Élysée, the rise of the far-right to power would grant it some leeway in this domain. The RN's relations with Russia go beyond ideological admiration to include a financial dimension. Similarly, a prominent figure in the RN, Thierry Mariani, is a frequent visitor to Damascus, and his relationship with the Syrian president is more than good. There is also a strong alignment between the Lebanese far-right, represented by the Free Patriotic Movement and some factions of the Lebanese Forces, and the French far-right. The Syrian regime hopes to restore relations with Paris and obstruct judicial proceedings against Syrian officials in French courts. The RN will attempt to change European policy as the far-right's dominance over EU institutions rises and with the possibility of Donald Trump reaching the White House. If all these elements come to fruition, there will be a radical change in French policy towards Syria and, consequently, Lebanon. Regarding the relationship with Israel, despite the deep-rooted anti-Semitism within the RN, the alliance with the Israeli far-right will be strengthened."

Salam Kawakibi, director, CAREP Paris

Public link

Please use the above public link if you want to share this noodl on another website.